Slovenia braces for election amid rising illiberalism

Posters blanket the country: a visual testament to the upcoming parliamentary elections on March 22nd. Slovenia’s current coalition, led by centre-left Prime Minister Robert Golob, has completed a full term – a rarity in the nation’s political history.

The fragile stability of golob's government

Golob’s Freedom Movement (Gibanje Svoboda, GS), formed just months before the 2022 election, achieved a stunning victory, securing 41 of the 90 seats. This allowed an improbable alliance with the Social Democrats (SD) and Levica, resulting in 53 seats—a fragile coalition in a deeply fragmented political landscape.

The government’s tenure has been marked by both achievement and improvisation. Following the devastating 2023 floods, the administration swiftly secured financial aid. Measures to shield households and businesses from soaring energy prices helped mitigate the crisis. The minimum wage increased, and a long-delayed long-term care system was introduced, largely thanks to Levica’s influence.

Yet, the rise of Golob's party has not been without its flaws. The Freedom Movement’s relative inexperience in governing led to instances of visible improvisation. But the real challenge lies in the shifting political terrain. The hard-right Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), led by Janez Janša, consistently leads in opinion polls, fueled by a familiar narrative of a biased press, concerns about migration, and calls for deregulation.

A resurgent janša and the normalization of illiberalism

Janša, a three-time former prime minister, is not a new phenomenon. His previous governments were marked by controversial policies, including allegations of corruption which led to a suspended prison sentence. His 2020-2022 tenure saw a sharper turn towards illiberalism, with actions like suspending funding to the Slovenian Press Agency and repeated attacks on the public broadcaster RTV Slovenija.

What distinguishes Janša's current challenge is the broader European context. The Trump presidency normalized hostility towards the media and judiciary, providing a blueprint for politicians seeking to erode democratic norms. Janša embraces this model, advocating for a government with an outright majority to avoid the perceived inefficiencies of coalition building. “At least he gets things done,” some potential SDS voters say, expressing impatience with compromise and a perception that liberal governments are weak.

A new SDS-led government would likely prioritize stricter border controls, deregulation, and a more “business-friendly” climate. The language of “reform” could easily translate into tighter executive influence over the media and judiciary – reforms that, while technically within the law, could significantly undermine democratic principles. Slovenia's institutions remain anchored in the EU legal order, and its civil society is active, but the consolidation of illiberal Politics globally presents a formidable challenge. The difference this time is the depth of precedent and international validation.

The election is not simply a contest between centre-left and right; it’s a choice between a flawed but functioning pluralism and a model where democratic norms can rapidly erode.

The outcome will define not just Slovenia’s future, but the trajectory of democratic governance in a continent increasingly susceptible to authoritarian tendencies.