Orbán gambles on fear: hungary's election turns to ukraine
Budapest – As Hungary prepares for parliamentary elections on April 12th, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is deploying a familiar, and increasingly desperate, tactic: painting a bleak picture of a nation teetering on the brink of war, all to bolster his Fidesz party’s chances.
The zelenskyy paradox: a campaign poster's tale
Across Hungary, posters featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are ubiquitous, a surreal sight given Orbán's often-lukewarm stance on the conflict. The message is blunt: a vote for Orbán is a vote for peace and security; a vote for the opposition is a path to being dragged into the war, potentially jeopardizing EU funding and even Hungarian lives. At a recent rally in Győr, Orbán thundered, “In 2026, we and only we are capable of saying ‘no’ to the Ukrainians, to preserve Hungary’s peace, security, and the possibility of economic development.” It’s a calculated maneuver, leveraging a deeply ingrained national narrative of resisting foreign domination, a sentiment historically rooted in Hungary’s struggles against Soviet rule.
But the strategy isn't resonating as effectively as Orbán might hope. Stefano Bottoni, a historian specializing in Hungarian Politics, notes a palpable shift. “Orbán’s rallies are less about conviction and more about spectacle,” he observes. “Many attendees are simply curious, drawn to the event like tourists—a far cry from the fervent mass mobilization he once commanded.” The opposition, led by Péter Magyar, a former government insider, is gaining traction, particularly among younger voters who view Orbán’s rhetoric as stale and fearmongering.
A fractured alliance: hungary and the eu
Hungary’s relationship with the European Union has been increasingly strained, largely due to concerns over rule of law, corruption, and democratic backsliding. Billions in EU funds are currently withheld from Budapest. Adding another layer of complexity, Hungary and Ukraine have engaged in heated exchanges, further isolating the country on the European stage. The recent discovery of explosives near a pipeline transporting Russian gas—an incident Orbán swiftly blamed on Ukraine, though Ukrainian authorities vehemently denied any involvement—only underscored the deepening geopolitical fissures.
Ágoston Mráz, CEO of the Nézőpont Intézet, a government-affiliated think tank, acknowledges the war's prominence in the campaign. “The issue divides the electorate,” he concedes, although his institute still forecasts an Orbán victory. The core Fidesz voter, particularly older and rural populations who have benefited from pension increases and other government programs, remains steadfast in their support. But cracks are appearing, even within this traditionally loyal base.
Ákos, a resident of a Fidesz-voting village, voiced his frustration, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Their message is repetitive, filled with Brussels-bashing and war scaremongering. It’s tiresome.” He points to the deteriorating condition of local roads, despite the Hungarian Village Program, a government initiative ostensibly designed to revitalize rural communities. “They lay new pavement over old, raising the roads so high you can see into people's gardens. Yet, they blame Brussels when the funds stop flowing.”
The shadow of soros and a panicked leader?
Dr. Bottoni raises a more troubling observation: the campaign's focus on Zelenskyy, coupled with historical parallels to previous government attacks on George Soros, suggests a darker undercurrent of antisemitism. Both Zelenskyy and Soros are Jewish, a detail that hasn't escaped scrutiny. “Orbán is grasping at straws,” Bottoni argues. “He’s desperately trying to deflect attention from Magyar’s burgeoning popularity, resorting to tactics reminiscent of past campaigns targeting Soros.”
The opposition’s stronger-than-expected turnout at a recent rally on March 15th – commemorating the 1848 Revolution – served as a stark wake-up call for Orbán. As Német Gergely, a farmer and staunch Fidesz supporter, put it, “Orbán is the best prime minister. He protects his people until the end.” But the sentiment rings hollow for a growing number of Hungarians who believe Orbán’s protection comes at the cost of their nation’s standing in Europe and, increasingly, its future.